Xiantan shares (002746) 2019 first quarter performance preview comment: benefit chicken prices rose in the first quarter increased by 361% -409%

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05/19/2020 0 Comment

Xiantan shares (002746) 2019 first quarter performance preview comment: benefit chicken prices rose in the first quarter increased by 361% -409%

The company released the first quarter performance forecast, and it is expected that the net profit attributable to mothers will increase by 360 each year.

69% -409.

36%.

The company released a forecast for the first quarter of 2019 and expects net profit attributable to the parent company1.

42 ppm-1.

570,000 yuan, an annual increase of 360.

69% -409.

The 36% increase in company performance was mainly due to the rebound in prices of chicken products in the last quarter of the first quarter of 2019.

We estimate that about 26 million broilers will be slaughtered in 2019Q1, corresponding to a single net profit of 5.

5-6.

0 yuan, 2019Q1 company chicken sales average price 1.

15-1.

18 million / ton, and the company’s average chicken meat sales price in 2018Q1 was zero.

97-0.

980,000 yuan / ton.

  Parents have a poor moulting effect and have limited impact on the commercial moulting supply.

In October 2018, parent moulting began to increase. Under normal circumstances, the price of hairless chickens has exceeded the price of hairless chickens (not moulting), but since October last year, the price difference between hairless chickens and hairless chickensShrinking, the price was completely upside down in January this year, the price of hairless chickens reached a record high, and the moult reached its peak in January 2019.

Although the amount of moulting has increased significantly, the moulting effect is very poor, and the price of commercial chicks has hit new highs frequently. The impact of this moulting on the supply of commercial chicks is limited. Therefore, ① there is a shortage of cocks, and parent cocks before 2015It accounted for 15%, 13% in 2016, and the current proportion has further decreased; ② the liver disease of parents is still serious; ③ the age of moulting is generally large.

  Affected by the African swine fever epidemic, the price of 2H2019 bird chain is expected to reach a new high.

In the fourth quarter of 2018, the number of domestic ancestor chicken introductions increased significantly from the previous month, corresponding to the increase in the supply of parent generation chicken seedlings from July to August 2019. From the perspective of the supply and demand situation of the broiler industry, the supply and demand gap in 2H2019 was lower than 1H2019.

However, if the pork supply gap caused by African swine fever and the substitution effect of chicken on pork are considered, the price of poultry chains in the second half of this year is expected to reach a record high.

  The company’s broiler production is expected to reach 1 in 2019.

300 million birds.

The company’s main products are commercial chicken and chicken products. Among them, chicken products are mainly sold in the form of divided frozen chicken products. The company’s commercial chicken production business is implemented by its own breeding farms and cooperative farms. Among them, self-cultivationIt accounts for less than 10% and is mainly used as a demonstration for cooperative farms, and more than 90% are farmed by cooperative farms.

We expect the company’s broiler volume to be around 1 in 2018.

1.7 billion birds, the company will maintain a steady growth trend in 2019-2021, and the number of broiler chickens is expected to reach 1 in 2019.

300 million birds.

  Profit forecast, evaluation and rating.

We predict that the bird chain is expected to maintain a high boom in 2019, and the bird chain price is expected to reach a new high in the second half of the year. The company will make full use of the rising chicken prices.

We expect the company’s broiler broiler volume to be 1 in 2018-2020.

1.7 billion birds, 1.

300 million birds, 1.

49.5 billion pigeons, with sales income of 26 respectively.

100 million, 34.

800 million, 39.

9 trillion, an increase of 20 each year.

8%, 33.

0%, 14.9%, net profit attributable to mothers4.

1.6 billion, 10.

2.9 billion, 11.

8.8 billion, an increase of 294 each year.

2%, 156.

1%, 15.

4%, respectively, to achieve a profit of 1.

3 yuan, 3.

33 yuan, 3.

84 yuan.

Based on historical estimates of the company’s economic upturn, the company was given 10 times PE in 2019 with a target price of 33.

3 yuan,深圳桑拿网 maintaining the “strong push” level.

  Risk factors: Epidemic; price rises exceed expectations.